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- 2a, where the overall ecosystem volume quickly recovers after market closures.
- However, 334 cash-out service entities (mainstream exchanges, high-risk exchanges and mixers) that received funds from both Hydra and its top five successors (Mega, Blacksprut, OMG!OMG!, Kraken and Solaris) showed an overlap of just under 50 percent.
- They are further classified as fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and slow moving consumer goods (SMCG).
In this guide, we’ll dive into many aspects of dark web monitoring, a critical component of any cybersecurity strategy. Gain access to valuable and comparable market data for over 190+ countries, territories, and regions with our Market Insights. Get deep insights into important figures, e.g., revenue metrics, key performance indicators, and much more.
The dark web drug market has been a topic of interest for many years, with law enforcement agencies and researchers trying to understand its inner workings. While the market has seen its fair share of ups and downs, it continues to thrive and evolve. In this article, we will explore what the dark web drug market might look like in 2024.
The Current State of the Dark Web Drug Market
Before we can predict what the dark web drug market will look like in 2024, it’s important to understand its current state. The market is primarily made up of online marketplaces where drugs and other illegal goods are bought and sold. These marketplaces are hidden on the dark web, which is a part of the internet that is not indexed by search engines and requires special software to access.
According to a report by the Global Drug Survey, the number of people using the dark web to buy drugs has been increasing in recent years. The report found that in 2019, 16.2% of respondents had used the dark web to buy drugs, up from 9.6% in 2016. The most commonly purchased drugs on the dark web are cannabis, MDMA, and cocaine.
Market Features
Predictions for the Dark Web Drug Market in 2024
By comparing our measures of the types of counterfeits to goods seized at borders, we can identify how products differ and discuss possible contributing factors to those differences. Based on a report by OECD/EUIPO (2019), which summarizes findings regarding seized counterfeits between 2014 and 2016, we see that not all categories represented on dark markets are also present in seized goods (Table 5). Also, the distribution of counterfeits found on dark markets and seized products varies greatly. Figure 2 shows how many products (not just counterfeits) were offered across all markets over time. The volumes shown are monthly and contain all available products on the dark markets.
As the dark web drug market continues to grow and evolve, it’s likely that we will see some changes in the coming years. Here are some predictions for what the market might look like in 2024:
Increased Use of Cryptocurrency
Only 67% Of Tor’s Daily Users Engage In Illegal Activity On The Dark Web
However, the lower volume is likely not due to these services disappearing altogether. Cryptocurrency cash-out services are not only advertised on Dark Web markets; this has never been the case. However, the takedown of Hydra coincided with a large increase in posts discussing cryptocurrency cash-out and mixers on forums in Flashpoint collections. The number remained high since, suggesting that the conversation (and offers) merely shifted from one type of platform to another. The advertising and discussion of cryptocurrency cashout services and mixers also increased significantly on Telegram, especially in late summer 2022 when the “war of marketplaces” seemed to peak. However, these developments do not mean a complete departure from darknet markets, or DNMs.
Cryptocurrency is already a popular method of payment on the dark web, but its use is likely to increase in the coming years. Cryptocurrency offers users a level of anonymity that traditional payment methods cannot match. As law enforcement agencies become more sophisticated in their ability to track transactions, cryptocurrency will become an even more attractive option for those looking to buy and sell drugs on the dark web.
More Sophisticated Marketplaces
As the dark web drug market continues to grow, we can expect to see more sophisticated marketplaces emerge. These marketplaces will likely have advanced security features, such as multi-signature transactions and two-factor authentication, to protect users’ privacy and security. They may also offer additional services, such as escrow services and dispute resolution mechanisms, to make transactions more reliable and trustworthy.
Additionally, transactions are made with cryptocurrencies, mostly Bitcoin, which also provide anonymity to the transaction parties6,36. While the Bitcoin blockchain is publicly available on Bitcoin core37 or other third-party APIs such as Blockchain.com38, a market or a user can generate a new address for each transaction. To track the transactions of markets and users as entities, the data need to be pre-processed in order to map groups of addresses into entities. Counterfeits could be introduced during packaging, distribution to wholesalers, retailers, or any other transportation process.
Hydra’s 2022 Collapse Led To An 894% Drop In Darknet Market Revenue
Greater Focus on Customer Service
Its sheer size can lead to a lot of questions, particularly for non cyber professionals who want to understand if data can be controlled, if it has been leaked onto the dark web. Get the latest in privacy news, tips, tricks, and security guides to level-up your digital security. The CIA launched a site on the dark web in 2019 to give people a secure way to contact the agency and report information. If you only want to mask your IP address and don’t need to access the dark web, then going online with a VPN is much easier and faster than using Tor.
Search Code, Repositories, Users, Issues, Pull Requests
With more competition in the dark web drug market, vendors will need to focus on providing excellent customer service to attract and retain customers. This may include offering a wider range of products, faster shipping times, and more responsive customer support.
Increased Law Enforcement Activity
As the dark web drug market continues to grow, law enforcement agencies will likely increase their efforts to shut it down. This may include more undercover operations, takedowns of major marketplaces, and arrests of key players in the market. However, it’s unlikely that law enforcement will be able to completely eliminate the market, as new marketplaces will likely emerge to take the place of those that are shut down.
Conclusion
The dark web drug market is a complex and ever-evolving ecosystem. While it’s difficult to predict exactly what the market will look like in 2024, it’s likely that we will see increased use of cryptocurrency, more sophisticated marketplaces, a greater focus on customer service, and increased law enforcement activity. As the market continues to grow and evolve, it’s important for law enforcement agencies and researchers to stay up-to-date on the latest trends and developments in order to better understand and combat this illegal activity.
